[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230106
SWODY1
SPC AC 230104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
MOB 40 SSE LUL 0A8 30 SW CHA 30 WNW TYS 35 WNW LOZ 30 WSW LUK 20 N
LUK 45 E LUK 30 N 5I3 35 NW TRI 30 W HSS 55 WSW AVL 35 N MCN 60 W
SAV 40 NE AYS 25 SE AYS 40 WNW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 30 W NIR 45 SSE SAT 45 ESE SAT 45
SE LFK 20 ENE HEZ 25 WSW MEI 30 W TCL 25 ENE HSV 25 W CSV 45 NNW CSV
20 WNW SDF 30 ESE BMG 15 ENE IND 25 ENE MIE 35 NNW CMH 20 SE MFD 25
NNW HLG 30 WSW LBE 35 E EKN 15 SSW CHO 55 SW RIC 10 SE RDU 35 E FAY
30 SSE OAJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE UIL 20 WSW SEA
20 NNE DLS 35 NE RDM 50 SSE RDM 30 NNW MHS 15 NW RBL 30 WSW SAC 25
WNW MER 25 WNW FAT 30 WSW BIH 60 NNW BIH 25 E NFL 45 ENE LOL BAM 55
SSE EKO 35 ESE ELY 45 W MLF 20 SE P38 35 E DRA 45 N DAG 30 SSE DAG
40 E RAL 25 NNW SAN ...CONT... 20 SSE DRT 50 SSW CLL 40 NE HEZ 40
WNW MEI 45 N HSV 25 SE BWG 45 SSE BMG 15 SSE HUF 15 SSW BMI 30 NNW
BMI MMO SBN 45 NNW MFD CLE 15 NNE ELM 25 WNW ALB 15 SSW EEN 15 NW
HYA ...CONT... 10 NNW DAB 15 S PIE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST OHIO...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST TO THE OH VLY...APPALACHIANS...AND
SOUTHEAST COAST...

...OH VLY TO NRN GULF COAST...
A LARGE AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY THIS
EVENING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO THE TN VLY...THEN
SWWD TO THE LA/TX GULF COASTAL PLAINS. UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
NARROW FROM SRN OH ACROSS ERN KY/TN TO NRN GA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ARE RESTRICTED/CHANNELED BY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST...AS WELL
AS THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER MCS.

CLEARLY...SUFFICIENT AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLIER SYSTEM...FROM SRN OH TO NRN GA...TO SUSTAIN ONGOING
SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY UNTAPPED AND VERY STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COAST
REGIONS. AS THE PHASING OF TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST RESULTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT AND ONGOING INTENSIFICATION OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE
AND SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

IN THE NORTH...MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN OH AND ERN KY/TN INTO WRN PARTS OF
WV/VA/NC AND SC. EVENTUALLY...THE INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD START TO WANE AS WEAKER INSTABILITY IS ENCOUNTERED OVER AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION...AND RESPONSE OF
THE LARGE SCALE WIND FIELDS...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND
HAIL MAY REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
AND MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK.

IN THE SOUTH...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ARE
LIKELY FROM THE MS DELTA EAST ACROSS AL/GA AND NRN FL. DEEP FRONTAL 
CIRCULATION AND VOLATILE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INTENSE AND ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH VERY LARGE
AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED...MAY BE LOCALLY
ENHANCED NEAR THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS GREATER.

..CARBIN.. 04/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.