[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221952
SWODY1
SPC AC 221951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
MDH 45 SSE MTO 15 SSE HUF 55 N SDF 10 E LUK 30 NW JKL 35 SE CSV 10
SE ATL 25 NW MCN 20 E MAI 35 ESE MCB 40 NW BTR 30 WNW HEZ 35 W CBM
45 NE MKL 35 ESE MDH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
SAV 15 SSW CTY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 S JCT TPL ELD GLH UOX DYR 10 N
CGI MVN DEC CMI 30 S LAF 55 ESE IND 40 ESE DAY UNI PIT LBE 30 W MRB
CHO 35 ENE LYH 60 ESE LYH ORF 25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BUF SYR ALB
ORH BID ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 50 SW SJT 30 WNW TPL TYR 35 NNE ELD LIT
ARG 15 SE ALN 40 E UIN PIA 35 NNW FWA 30 S DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 50 SSW PDT
25 SW BNO 35 N MHS 20 N ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LNR 30 ESE IRK
35 SW IRK 45 WNW LWD 30 N FOD 35 SSE MSP 25 SSE EAU 10 E VOK 15 SSE
LNR.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN
VLYS AND CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

EVOLUTION OF LARGE DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.  THIS IS OCCURRING IN
RESPONSE TO MERGING/PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSES...
DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN BLOCK.

...MID SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GULF STATES/LWR MS VLY AND TX**...
CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALREADY ACCELERATING
OUT OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS
NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO
THE PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DRY LINE-LIKE
STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  ENVIRONMENT NEAR
THIS FEATURE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 100O TO 2000 J/KG.

INTENSE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND...AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID INCREASE IN STORMS
IS EXPECTED.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY SMALL
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  

EVOLUTION OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
 
...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES**...
CLUSTER OF STORMS INITIATED BY WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
AS IT CONTINUES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS IS NOT AS MOIST AS
AREAS TO THE WEST...DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR ARE ALSO WEAK...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH SIZABLE DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE COLD
POOL SURGING DOWN THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ALONG GUST FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS SPREADING OUT OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
HAIL/WIND THREAT.  HOWEVER...GENERAL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY
TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...DUE
PRIMARILY TO DIURNAL COOLING OF LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS**...
SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION...NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.  COLD STABLE SURFACE
RIDGING IS SLOW TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ...AND
UPPER IMPULSE WHICH SUPPORTED INITIATION OF ACTIVITY IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHEARED.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST**...
THOUGH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD OFF COASTAL
AREAS...HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CASCADES BENEATH WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF COLD POOL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
HEATING/OROGRAPHY...AND STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 04/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.