[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221648
SWODY1
SPC AC 221646

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
EVV 30 S HUF 25 ENE LUK 40 WNW HTS 35 SE CSV 10 SE ATL 30 NNE MCN 20
E MAI 35 ESE MCB 40 NW BTR 30 WNW HEZ 35 W CBM CKV 30 SW EVV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W
COT 30 NW SAT 35 NE LFK 25 WSW MLU 15 NNE GWO 15 ESE UOX 10 SSE PAH
10 WSW MVN 15 WNW MTO ZZV 25 W MGW 20 WSW EKN 30 W SHD 25 E CHO 25
NE ECG ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 SW SJT
30 WNW TPL 15 NW SHV 20 ESE PBF 40 ESE JBR 25 E CGI 25 WNW SLO 20 N
SPI 35 ESE MMO 35 NNW FWA 30 S DTW ...CONT... 15 SW BUF 10 SSW SYR
10 NNE ALB 15 SW ORH BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 50 SSW PDT
25 SW BNO 35 N MHS 20 N ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LNR 30 ESE IRK
35 SW IRK 45 WNW LWD 30 N FOD 35 SSE MSP 25 SSE EAU 10 E VOK 15 SSE
LNR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S SFO 30 NNW FAT
55 NNW NID 15 S NID 10 S OXR.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN...PARTS OF SRN
AND ERN MS...MUCH OF AL AND INTO WRN GA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN / OH /
LOWER MS VALLEYS WWD INTO SERN TX AND EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRONOUNCED UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
WITH TIME...AS STRONGER FEATURES UPSTREAM DIVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA / THE NRN PLAINS.  OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A LARGE / DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE TN / OH VALLEYS...WITH
THIS TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID / UPPER JET.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF
INITIAL VORT MAX...AND THEN SHOULD DEEPEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN PA AS LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW -- NOW STRETCHING SSWWD ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND THEN ACROSS SRN AR INTO NERN TX -- WILL MOVE SEWD WITH
TIME...AND SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM WRN PA LOW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...TN / OH VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY MOVE E OF
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITH TIME ALONG / AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM IL SSWWD INTO WRN TN /
MS...AND THEN WSWWD INTO TX WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ATTM.

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S DEWPOINTS/ COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HEATING
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...WITH WIDESPREAD 1000
TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
 THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
AS SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL
STORMS...LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME LIKELY.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR
SHOULD EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE
LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.  AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD EVOLVE.

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THREAT
MORE LIMITED.  

...SRN / SERN TX...
THOUGH STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NE OF THIS REGION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL TX IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE / DEVELOP WSWWD WITH TIME INVOF COLD FRONT.  AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS SHOULD
BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW SPREADING SEWD OVER THIS REGION WITH TIME...SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE.  THOUGH HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 

...PARTS OF WRN WA / WRN ORE...
UPPER LOW / VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE PAC
NW...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL /-20 TO -22 C AT H5/ FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WA / ORE INTO THIS EVENING.  BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  GIVEN
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE RATES...A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.  GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...LOCALLY STRONG
/ GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE MORE VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS.

..GOSS.. 04/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.