[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221225
SWODY1
SPC AC 221224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
HUF 20 SSW DAY 40 WNW HTS 25 ESE ATL 40 NNE CEW 40 SSE LUL 25 N LUL
25 E CBM 30 SW EVV 25 SSE HUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
SAV 15 SSW CTY ...CONT... 60 SSE DRT 30 NW HDO 35 W MLU 20 NNW GWO
40 E MEM 15 SW PAH 20 SSW BLV DEC 20 SE MIE 20 NNW ZZV 25 SSE YNG 35
NE LBE 45 ENE CHO 25 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW DRT 25 E BGS
30 WNW TXK 55 NNE LIT 15 SSE TBN 45 WNW COU 20 NNE LWD 45 E FOD 20
ENE RST 30 NE LSE 15 W GRB OSC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 25 NE UCA PWM
...CONT... 65 WNW 4OM 35 N EPH 45 S LWS 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE
MHS 4BK ...CONT... 10 SSE SFO 30 W MER 15 NNE FAT 60 S BIH 25 NNE
EDW 10 ESE SBA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF
KY...TN...AL...AND SMALL PARTS OF SRN IND...SERN MS...NRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE
AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S....

...MID WEST/SOUTH/SRN ATLANTIC COAST...
STRONG MID/UPPER SYSTEM /NOW OVER NERN KS/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WAA AND H85
CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER.
 FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE DAY.  THIS RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT QUALITY OF AIR MASS
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER...06Z
MODELS /ALONG WITH 09Z RUC/ ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS BY 21Z.

/LEADING ACTIVITY/
THOUGH MORNING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SOME STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS
WILL CONTINUE. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE BY THE MID MORNING AS
HEATING AIDS IN WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY/ERN KY/ERN TN/NRN AL/NWRN GA.  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS STORMS
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY...AND ACCOMPANYING
SEVERE THREAT...MAY SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

/AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY/
AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN AIR MASS RECOVERY...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS SRN IND/SERN IL/SRN OH.  THIS WILL DEPEND ON
STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE OF OUTFLOW FROM MORNING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KY/TN...AND DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL...HOWEVER...BE STRONGEST FROM MIDDLE TN/NRN AL NWD INTO
IND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LATE IN THE DAY FROM SRN IND SWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEYS.  DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED SWWD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN AND CENTRAL TX AROUND 20-21Z.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH EXPECTED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. 
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE NOSE OF
STRONG WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE COLD FRONT. 
DESPITE THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN LOWEST FEW
KILOMETERS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES
WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  THUS A FEW TORNADOES
COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OVER THIS AREA. EVOLUTION INTO LEWPS/BOW
ECHOES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD AND
SEWD...INCREASING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES AFTER DARK. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY SPREAD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TONIGHT.

...PAC NW...
SMALL AREA OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MOIST MID
LEVELS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY NEAR SLOW WWD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
NWRN ORE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY
STORMS WHICH CAN FORM ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.