[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220602
SWODY1
SPC AC 220600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
LUL MEI 20 SE TUP 20 SE MKL 20 SSE PAH 35 SE MVN 25 SE MTO 20 NNW
HUF 30 SE LAF 20 WNW DAY 40 SE DAY 25 W HTS 40 WNW TRI 10 S HSS SPA
40 NNW AGS 50 SW AGS 30 NE ABY 35 NE MAI 20 SW MAI 40 SE MOB 30 N
GPT 40 SW LUL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
DRT 45 NE DRT 25 NW JCT 35 WNW ACT 20 WNW SHV 40 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 15
SW GLH 45 NNW GWO 30 SE JBR 25 WSW POF VIH 25 NNE COU 25 SE IRK 35
ESE OTM 15 E MLI 10 NE FWA 30 W HLG 45 ENE CHO 40 ENE RIC 25 NE ORF
...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE SFO 30 W MER
15 NNE FAT 60 S BIH 25 NNE EDW 10 ESE SBA ...CONT... 65 WNW 4OM 35 N
EPH 45 S LWS 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE MHS 4BK ...CONT... 50 WNW
DRT 25 E BGS 30 WNW TXK 55 NNE LIT 15 SSE TBN 45 WNW COU 20 NNE LWD
45 E FOD 20 ENE RST 30 NE LSE 15 W GRB OSC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 25
NE UCA PWM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...
INDIANA... OHIO... KENTUCKY... TENNESSEE... EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA... GEORGIA... SMALL AREAS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS
WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
SERN TX TO THE MID MS VLY ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE EAST COAST AND
NRN FL...

A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE
REGION OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. VERY LARGE
HAIL... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES... ARE ALL
POSSIBLE AS AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SWEEP EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS... INDIANA... OHIO... KENTUCKY...
TENNESSEE... EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA... GEORGIA... AND SMALL
AREAS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

...MIDWEST ACROSS THE TN VLY TO THE NRN GULF COAST ...
COMPACT AND VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER NEB EARLY
TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/NRN MN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
THESE TWO CURRENTLY DISTINCT DISTURBANCES WILL PHASE INTO A DEEP
COLD CORE TROUGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
REGIONS WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND TN VLY REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...INITIAL TRIPLE-POINT SFC LOW OVER IL WILL
TRACK OR REDEVELOP EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS OH AND
WRN PA WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE
LEADING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN AN EXTENSIVE ARC FROM
THE OH VLY SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY LATER TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHIELD...
EXPECT AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SECONDARY SFC LOW OVER
IND...SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY...TO THE NRN GULF COAST. PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT MOVING INTO THIS REGION OF INCREASINGLY HIGH CAPE WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z.
ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND DIVERGENT 50-70KT MID
LEVEL JET STREAK SPREADING SEWD FROM THE LWR OH AND MID MS VLYS.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WHEN DISCRETE CELLS EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG
SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION AND MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. HOWEVER...PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INCREASINGLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AWAY/SOUTH OF SFC LOW SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO AND
LARGE HAIL THREATS MAY EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH TIME.

BY EVENING...STORM MERGERS AND LINEAR FORCING ON THE ADVANCING FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL AND EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ADVANCE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIANS...GA AND AL INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING ACROSS THESE AREAS.

...LA WWD TO SERN TX...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADS
ACROSS THESE AREAS COINCIDENT WITH STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40KT ATOP WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS OR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

...WRN ORE/LWR COLUMBIA RIVER VLY...
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN CASCADES COUPLED
WITH SMALL POCKET COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY
FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE SWD. A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST GIVEN MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.