[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220117
SWODY1
SPC AC 220116

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
OJC 30 NE MKC 35 SSW P35 40 SSW UIN ALN 15 NW MVN 40 E MDH 15 SE PAH
20 NE DYR 50 ENE LIT 10 S HOT 40 ENE PRX 15 NE DUA 25 WSW MLC 35 SW
JLN 20 ESE OJC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
P07 70 NE P07 30 SSE ABI 20 NNW MWL 50 NW MLC 35 WNW JLN 35 SSW OJC
25 W FNB 25 NE LNK 40 E OMA 15 WSW MLI 25 NNE HUF 35 ESE BMG 15 NW
LEX 40 WNW LOZ 30 WNW CSV 25 NNE GLH 35 E SHV 35 WNW CLL 40 NNW SAT
55 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 40 SSW AGR 45 W
PBI 15 SSE MIA ...CONT... 25 SSW MOB 25 NNW LUL 20 NNE HEZ 45 SSE
LFK 40 W VCT LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 60 E FST 15 NE ABI 40 ESE FSI
50 WSW TUL 25 NW CNU 25 NNW MHK 45 SSW EAR 50 W LBF 50 WNW VTN 35
ENE PIR 20 SE ATY 10 ESE MKT 15 WSW MSN 20 W BEH 20 ESE DAY 15 ESE
PKB 25 ENE EKN 20 ENE SBY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 35 SE CLT 25 SSW AND
40 SSW MCN 25 SSE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW 4LW 30 N MFR 30
N EUG 20 N DLS 50 SE YKM 30 WSW S80 30 ENE BOI 65 WNW OWY 10 NW 4LW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FAR S TX TO THE MIDWEST...

NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.

...MO TO IL AND THE MID MS VLY...
DEEPENING TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER NWRN MO THIS EVENING IS FCST TO
TRACK EAST ALONG SHARP WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM THE LOW EWD TO THE
LWR OH VLY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE REGION
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF MO HAS BEEN
LOCALLY OVERTURNED FROM NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ERUPTING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOWS. WITH
THE ONSET OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING FOR UPWARD
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
NEB/KS...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT FROM ORGANIZED STORMS TO CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE LOW...OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN MO...AND
THE WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL TO ERN MO WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL...IN THESE AREAS AND
NEAR THESE FEATURES. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO LINE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
FROM  MKC AREA ATTM. WIND DAMAGE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL MO EWD TO
THE BOOTHEEL. POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING BOWING COMPLEX WITH
DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE AS 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND
PRONOUNCED DRY AIR INTRUSION SPREAD EAST ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXTEND AS
FAR EAST AS IND...WRN KY...AND MIDDLE TN BY EARLY FRIDAY.

...ERN OK/AR...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LZK EVENING RAOB SUGGESTS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SHOULD FUEL A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN THE MDT RISK
AREA.

...TX...
WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR...IN ADDITION TO GREATER
INHIBITION...WILL KEEP THE NUMBER OF STORMS LIMITED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT CROSSES CNTRL AND ERN TX. STRONG HEATING THAT OCCURRED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WAS SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW MORE STORMS MAY
ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LOW. HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT.

...SWRN AL...
LONG-LIVED COLD POOL FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT ORIGINATED OVER MO
YESTERDAY...WAS STILL GOING ACROSS SRN AL THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS
WEAKLY ORGANIZED...BUT INTENSE...CELLS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO WANE AS
SURFACE HEATING AND STABILIZATION SET IN.

..CARBIN.. 04/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.