[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190100
SWODY1
SPC AC 190058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
SLN 20 WNW SLN 25 NW CNK 35 W LNK 25 WSW SPW 10 S FRM 30 NNW MCW 25
NNW ALO 30 SW CID 30 SSW OTM 30 S MHK 30 ESE SLN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
LBB 35 WNW LBB 40 WSW AMA 20 NNE LBL 10 SW DDC 40 NW P28 20 SSE P28
45 W OKC 60 SSE CDS 10 SE LBB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 15 NE INK
45 ESE TCC 25 W GCK 50 ESE GLD 20 ENE IML 15 S BFF 40 ESE BPI 20 E
JAC 55 NW COD 15 SSW MLS 45 WNW MOT 50 N MOT ...CONT... 55 NNE APN
25 E FNT 15 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 10 N BKW 20 N 5I3 40 E BMG CMI 35 E
UIN 30 WSW JEF 10 ENE FYV 40 NW TYR 35 NW NIR 10 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW FCA 65 SSW MSO
20 E BOI 80 N WMC 65 E 4LW 45 NE 4LW 45 N RDM 30 NW DLS 65 E BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ERN
NEB ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS IA AND NW MO WITH EXPANSION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN
END OF THE LINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OOZ OMAHA SOUNDING
ONLY SHOWS 19 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR BUT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SE NEB AND NE KS. THE STRONGER SHEAR IS DUE
TO A SMALL 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET SHOWN IN THE PROFILER DATA. THE
SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE JET IN FAR SE
NEB THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST WITH THE STORMS
POSSIBLE AFFECTING SW IA AND FAR NW MO BY LATE EVENING. MODEL
FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TONIGHT...AN MCS WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IA. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...
A LINEAR MCS APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTING BY A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MLCAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD POSSIBLY REACHING FAR SW
OK BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY
WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.

...NRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN
ND. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AS EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING SHOW
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES BY LATE EVENING...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.