[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181944
SWODY1
SPC AC 181943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
LBB 30 SSE BGS 60 NE P07 30 S FST 40 WNW FST 35 SE CVS 35 ENE CAO 35
S HSI 60 WSW YKN FSD 25 NNW FRM 20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC
10 SSW HUT GAG 40 NW CDS 40 ESE LBB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA 50 SW MSO 45
N SUN 40 WNW IDA 25 S 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 20 NE APN 10 NE FNT
25 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 E BMG 40 NW DNV 30 N SPI 65 N POF
35 ESE MLC 50 SE AUS 40 S LRD ...CONT... 25 ESE ELP 35 SSE RTN 10
ESE LAA 45 SE AKO 20 E CYS 45 WSW LAR 50 W EGE 25 WSW 4HV 50 WSW P38
30 ENE TVL 30 SSW OTH ...CONT... 10 SSW AST BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN IA...ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...INTO WEST TX...

...NEB/IA/NERN KS...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL VORT MAX
OVER CENTRAL NEB.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN IA DURING THE DAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING CU FIELD NEAR THE MO RIVER.  THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE A
RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN IA AFTER DARK
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING.  EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO
NORTHEAST KS IS MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE.  CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. 
HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST KS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

...CENTRAL KS INTO WEST TX...
SURFACE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY FOCUSING FROM CENTRAL KS...ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...TO WEST OF MAF.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS
WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE LOW...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED.  RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.

..HART.. 04/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.