[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190557
SWODY1
SPC AC 190555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 25 WSW CYS BFF MHN 20 NW SUX 35
WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 35 E VOK 30 WSW OSH 30 NE JVL 40 SW RFD 20 WNW BRL
P35 10 NE HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
P07 60 S CDS 40 SE CDS 30 S LTS SPS 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW
LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35
ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT...
35 SW P07 20 NNE BGS 35 W CDS 10 SSW LBL 45 E LAA 40 SSE LIC 50 WNW
COS 20 WNW MTJ U17 35 ENE DRA 55 E BIH 35 ENE TVL 55 NNW LOL 45 WSW
MQM 20 NNE WEY 20 ENE SHR 15 SE REJ 20 NW MBG FAR 40 ENE ELO
...CONT... 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY
AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS NEWD ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SFC TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON...INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE WY AND NERN CO WITH STORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD INTO SW NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING ENEWD
INTO NERN IA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NEB SHOW INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE GREATEST SUPERCELL
THREAT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NEB DUE TO THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN
NEB SHOW 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM WHICH
SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE
BACKED NORTH OF A SFC LOW. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS
ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND CNTRL IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD INTO FAR NRN KS
AND FAR NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WCNTRL TX...
A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WCNTRL TX TODAY WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE. AS SFC TEMPS WARM
TODAY...THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIATING EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL DUE
TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE
INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.