[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181552
SWODY1
SPC AC 181550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
SJT 15 SE MAF 30 W PVW 15 E EHA 50 NNE HLC 20 ENE BUB FSD 25 NNW FRM
20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC 15 SW ICT 30 SSW END 15 N SPS 45
ENE SJT 35 SW SJT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA 50 SW MSO 45
N SUN 40 WNW IDA 25 S 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 20 NE APN 10 NE FNT
25 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 E BMG 40 NW DNV 30 N SPI 65 N POF
35 ESE MLC 50 SE AUS 40 S LRD ...CONT... 25 ESE ELP 25 NNE HOB 30
SSE LAA 45 SE AKO 20 E CYS 45 WSW LAR 50 W EGE 25 WSW 4HV 50 WSW P38
30 ENE TVL 30 SSW OTH ...CONT... 10 SSW AST BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHILE THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DRIFT
NEWD OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CURRENT POSITION ALONG KS/NEB BORDER
SW OF GRI. 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS FROM LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NWD THRU WRN TX/OK INTO CENTRAL KS...RESULTING IN A STEADY
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

...NERN KS/SERN NEB/SWRN IA...
PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER VORT/TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING NEWD TO ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA THIS EVENING AND THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
AND INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

BY MID AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD RAISE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 70S WHICH COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S
RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT INSTABILITY...MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG
ACROSS ERN KS INTO SERN CORNER OF NEB.

SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT IN THE LOWER RANGE FOR SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SFC TO 1 KM OF 25-30KT
SUPPORTS ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS NERN KS INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR
SURFACE BASED INITIATION IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX.  SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES. 
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF AIR MASS CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

...NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS...
DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CENTRAL KS SWWD THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT AS AREA IN THE WAKE OF VORT TO THE E...AND STILL SOME
POTENTIAL CAPPING... THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY
STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.  LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING
PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WRN TX...WHICH COULD DELAY STORM INITIATION 
AS WELL AS COVERAGE.  AGAIN LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT GIVEN LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.