[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180057
SWODY1
SPC AC 180055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
FST 45 SSE GDP 20 NW GDP 30 WNW ROW 55 SE LVS 15 ESE CAO 20 WNW LBL
10 SSW GCK 45 NW GCK 40 WSW GLD 45 WNW GLD 40 NNW GLD 35 ENE HLC 15
WNW SLN 20 S HUT 55 SSW P28 35 SW LBB 20 N FST 40 W FST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE TRI 15 SSW JKL
35 NE LEX 25 E LUK 20 SE CMH 25 E PKB 30 WSW EKN 20 WNW LYH 35 W DAN
50 SW PSK 25 NNE TRI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35 NW ONM 35 SSE
FMN 15 SE MTJ 45 NNE CYS 35 N CDR 55 N REJ 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... RRT
35 ENE AXN 30 WNW MSP 35 SSW LSE 25 SSW DBQ 40 S CID 40 E LWD STJ 50
ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 35 E LVM 30
WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM 15
NNE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CO
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN
KS EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A
DRYLINE FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS NE NM WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S F WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN SERN NM AND FAR WRN KS. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND ERN NM WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
EXISTS. THE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO CNTRL KS...NW OK AND WEST
TX THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT
DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN
SD TO NE IA. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...THE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WEAK ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION ISOLATED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING ASCENT...ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN
NEB AND IA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 04/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.