[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171948
SWODY1
SPC AC 171947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FST 45
N MRF 10 N GDP 40 ESE ALM 60 ENE 4CR 50 SSE RTN 40 NNE LAA 10 NW AKO
55 SE RAP 40 E REJ 40 NW PIR 35 NNE VTN 45 NNE HLC 25 WSW RSL 35 ESE
DDC 50 NNE GAG 40 ENE PVW 20 W BGS FST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR 35 E LVM
30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM
BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE RRT 30 ENE AXN
STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 75 NNW SVC
DRO 20 WNW EGE CYS 35 NNW CDR 15 ENE REJ 45 ESE GDV 60 N ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN NM/CNTRL
CO THIS AFTERNOON.  BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BENEATH THIS
FEATURE...ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER VCNTY KPUB. 
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING N-S FROM
SWRN NEB TO NERN NM. TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL CO/NCNTRL NM
MOUNTAINS IN THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSE A HAIL/GUSTY WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  FARTHER EAST...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
VCNTY THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY TO BE
STRONGER.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...THOUGH...BECOME SLY THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WITH LITTLE FLOW EAST OF THE VORT MAX.  THUS...STORMS MAY
TEND TO PULSE AND NOT BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED.  BUT...STRONGER
CELLS MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.  NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE VORT
MAX FROM NERN/ECNTRL CO INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN/WCNTRL KS.  FOR MORE
INFO...SEE MCD #575.

...FAR SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NCNTRL NM
CONTINUES TO GRAZE SERN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON.  H5 TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE WARMING WEST OF KELP PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT FARTHER
EAST...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW-MID 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS BENEATH THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS WILL BE GETTING PARCELS WARM ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP
IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NM MOUNTAINS AND MAY MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL...SHOULD STORMS INDEED
SURVIVE.  THUS... WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK INTO SERN
NM/FAR W TX THROUGH THE EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE WRN DAKS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
NCNTRL NEB INTO SWRN ND.  AT THE SAME TIME...DRY WLY FLOW ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF A MT SURFACE LOW HAS MIXED EWD PAST KRAP AND INTO THE
FAR WRN NEB PNHDL.  RECENT VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE MAY BE REACHED ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL
SD/NCNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.  THE DRYLINE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO BRING THE RISK OF TSTM INITIATION BETWEEN 21-23Z. 
FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK IN THE COLUMN AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR
GENERALLY UNDER 25 KTS.  BUT...LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP AND MAY
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEAK KINEMATIC FIELDS.  THUS...GIVEN A
STORM...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THREATS. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FARTHER N
TO INCLUDE SWRN/SCNTRL SD AND WRN NEB. FOR MORE INFO...SEE MCD
#574.

..RACY.. 04/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.