[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180558
SWODY1
SPC AC 180557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
SJT 35 S BGS 20 NW LBB 40 ENE DHT 30 SE BBW 15 NNE FSD 20 NNE FRM 20
NNE MCW 20 SW ALO 35 SE DSM 30 WSW OJC 35 S EMP 30 SE END SPS 40 ENE
SJT 25 W SJT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 30 S HOB
30 SSE LAA 40 E AKO 25 NE LAR 40 NW RWL 45 NW RKS 20 ENE U28 25 NW
4HV 40 NNE BCE CDC 10 NE P38 70 WNW P38 45 NW TPH 60 S NFL 30 ENE
TVL 35 WNW RNO 15 SSE SVE 15 E SVE 50 NW LOL 25 NNE LOL 35 S BAM 55
S EKO 35 SSW ENV 25 NNW ENV 20 NW OWY 50 SW BNO 45 NNE MFR 50 NNE
4BK 30 SW OTH ...CONT... 30 NW HVR 30 SSE HVR 15 S LWT 35 N BIL 65
ENE BIL 50 E MLS 10 SW P24 60 N DVL ...CONT... 75 ESE ANJ 40 WNW PLN
20 WNW TVC 25 SSE HTL 25 NW MTC CLE 20 N HLG 15 E EKN 25 WSW SHD 10
WSW ROA 25 SSW PSK 40 E TRI 45 SSE JKL 40 NE SDF 20 SW BMG 30 ENE
ALN 25 ESE TBN 10 ENE FYV 35 ENE DAL 30 W CLL 15 S NIR 50 SW ALI 40
S LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...
A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE MO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING CONVECTION WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING LIKELY BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND KS.
STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING SWD INTO
CNTRL KS. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE UPPER-TROUGH AND
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SE NEB
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE
TO THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL KS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WITH THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS WRN IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
THE INSTABILITY...CONVECTION COULD GENERATE A COLD POOL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE EVENING HOURS. IF A LINEAR MCS CAN
GENERATE...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS ERN
NEB...WRN IA AND FAR SWRN MN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DIMINISHED THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS ACROSS
WCNTRL TX AFTER DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID-DAY...PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING
SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF A
DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON...CELLS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/M. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS THAT BOW OUT IN THE
EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF BY LATE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...WY/SD/ND/MN...
AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS EXTENDING SWWD INTO WY TODAY. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AT 21Z SHOW
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NRN MN..SE ND AND CNTRL SD. A
MARGINAL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WY WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH AN INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

..BROYLES.. 04/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.