[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170542
SWODY1
SPC AC 170541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
INK 55 SE GDP 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 50
ENE LAA 25 NNW GCK 10 NNW DDC 40 S DDC 25 NNW GAG 35 NW BGS 30 SW
MAF 35 SSW INK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 20 SW IWD
30 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 S MKE JXN 15 WSW TOL 35 NW DAY 30 SSE IND 25
WSW BRL 35 NNW IRK 20 ENE P35 45 SW JLN 30 N ADM 30 W BWD 25 WNW DRT
...CONT... 35 SSW DMN 20 NW SVC 15 W 4BL 45 N GJT 45 E CAG 30 SSW
BFF 45 SE RAP 45 SE REJ 25 SSW DIK 65 NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 10 ENE 3TH
10 NNE S80 30 N BOI 60 W BOI 40 SSW RDM 15 N OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND NM MTNS...

...SRN PLAINS/NM MTNS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD TODAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST
EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 50 TO 55 F. THE
STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM INTO WEST TX AND
SW KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN SPITE OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK. THIS
COMBINED WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT. 21Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE OK PANHANDLE SHOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING
20 F WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND MAY HAVE A
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND WHERE INSTABILITY
IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. DUE TO THE PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO
SCNTRL KS AND NW OK BY LATE EVENING WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DROP OFF DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FARTHER EAST.

..CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF A HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD IN RESULT IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE.
ALTHOUGH HARD TO IDENTIFY AT THIS TIME...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...MAY INITIATE
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS ERN NEB...IA AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING INSTABILITY BUT AGREE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION. STILL...IF MODERATE
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...MULTICELL STORMS THAT
INITIATE COULD HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DUE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANY
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO
DECREASING INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 04/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.