[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170032
SWODY1
SPC AC 170030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LWD 45 WNW BIE
GRI 40 W OFK 25 NNW RWF 15 E STC 55 NE EAU 15 NE AUW 30 ESE OSH 35
ESE RFD 35 W MMO 15 NNE BRL 35 SSE OTM 40 SW LWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 45 S SOW 25
ENE INW 60 S 4BL 50 ENE GUC 45 SW IML 35 S IML 35 SW MCK 40 SW HLC
45 NE GCK 35 NE LBL 40 NE HOB 15 SE INK 15 SE FST 35 E P07 40 NW
DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AND WRN NM/FAR WRN TX...
00Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NM WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE ONGOING STORMS MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION. 

...ERN CO/FAR WRN KS/FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE...
A SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO AND
FAR WRN KS WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. AS A
DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES THE AREA...A
FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND
DAMAGE THREAT IF CELLS CAN INITIATE. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION.

...CNTRL IA...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS IA
WITH A SFC LOW IN WRN IA. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...A FEW
CELL COULD INITIATE. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD HAVE A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 04/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.