[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171258
SWODY1
SPC AC 171257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 50
ENE LAA 25 NNW GCK 10 NNW DDC 40 SSE DDC GAG 45 SSW CDS 35 SSE BGS
30 SSE FST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E MTC 20 SE CLE 20
WSW HLG 35 WSW EKN 35 ESE 5I3 20 NE 5I3 15 E MIE 20 SSE SBN 40 WNW
CGX 15 WNW MKE 45 ENE MKE 25 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 20 WNW SVC
15 W 4BL 45 N GJT 45 E CAG 30 SSW BFF 45 SE RAP 45 SE REJ 25 SSW DIK
65 NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 10 ENE 3TH
10 NNE S80 30 N BOI 60 W BOI 40 SSW RDM 30 NNE OTH 20 NNE ONP 35 NW
OLM CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 20 WSW IWD
30 SW CWA 25 NNE LNR 25 S DBQ 30 S OTM 35 NNW IRK 20 ENE P35 45 SW
JLN 30 N ADM 30 W BWD 25 WNW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HI PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW NEARING THE WA/ORE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SE INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS.  IN THE SRN BRANCH...SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A COMPLEX TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM AZ NEWD INTO THE SRN RCKYS.  THIS IMPULSE SHOULD HEAD
GENERALLY NE AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY...WITH THE
LEAD PORTION REACHING N CNTRL KS/SRN NEB BY 12Z MONDAY.  THE DATA
ALSO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE MOVING E/NE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NRN BAJA/NW SONORA.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WA/ORE TROUGH HAS REACHED
WRN MT...CNTRL ID AND THE NW CORNER OF NV.  THE FRONT SHOULD
PROGRESS TO A CNTRL ND/NRN UT AXIS BY MONDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS E OF THE RCKYS.

...ERN NM/W TX NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLNS...
STRENGTHENING OF LEE TROUGH E OF THE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS WILL RESULT IN
A MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND WEAKER UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER
MUCH OF ERN NM AND W TX TODAY RELATIVE TO THE PAST TWO DAYS.  A
RESIDUAL SELY COMPONENT WILL...HOWEVER ...PERSIST OVER FAR SW TX AND
THE TRANSPECOS REGION.

LEAD PORTION OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR RTN
ATTM AND SHOULD CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING IN ITS WAKE OVER ERN NM AND W TX.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THIS REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER ERN
AZ...CONTINUES ENEWD.  SURFACE HEATING...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODEST/RECYCLED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S/ SHOULD
BOOST MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH.

25+ KT W TO WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL
LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR BOTH HAIL AND
HIGH WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS GOOD COLD
POOL POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE
OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVENING.  WITH THE LLJ EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN ON PAST NIGHTS...THESE CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT AND MOVE FARTHER E/NE THAN WAS THE CASE ON
SATURDAY...POSING A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR  MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS...NRN AND WRN OK AND NW
TX.

...CNTRL/ERN NEB NNE INTO ERN DAKS/WRN IA/WRN MN...
STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL TRANSPORT POCKET OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NOW PRESENT OVER THE LWR MO VLY NNEWD INTO VICINITY OF
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION...ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE STRONG UPDRAFTS... WARRANTING AT LEAST A LOW
PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR HAIL.  BESIDES LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK IN SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE.  DEEP
SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN WEAK...THUS SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED
ATTM.

...NRN INTERMTN REGION...
A BAND OR TWO OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL THUNDER MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF ID...WRN AND CNTRL MT AND PERHAPS FAR NW WY LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.