[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161924
SWODY1
SPC AC 161923

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 45 S SOW
25 ENE INW 75 ESE PGA 40 ENE GUC 40 N LIC 30 SSW MCK 35 NE LBL AMA
40 NE HOB FST 35 E P07 40 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE EAU 15 NE AUW
30 ESE OSH 35 ESE RFD 35 W MMO 15 NNE BRL 20 SSE OTM 25 NNW LWD 55
NE OMA 25 SW SPW 30 SW RWF 35 NNE RWF 15 E STC 55 NNE MSP 55 NE EAU.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ESELY AND IS SPILLING WEST OF THE NM DIVIDE
OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER AZ AND BACKDOOR FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT TSTM CLUSTERS.  THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME...ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WWD AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NM AND SCNTRL CO.
 STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AREA PROFILERS /AZC-TCU-WSM/ SHOW 20-25 KT 0-6KM SHEAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ABOUT A 10 KT INCREASE
IN MID-LEVEL WINDS 21-00Z.  THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE
FURTHER AND MOVE ENEWD INTO THE VLYS/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  MOST CELLS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLS...THOUGH ISOLD STORMS
MAY TEND TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND REMAIN BACKED
AND AIMED INTO NM.  THUS...TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP MOST OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE NCNTRL/CNTRL MOUNTAINS OF NM AND THEN MOVE ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS...OR TOWARD THE TX/OK/CO BORDERS.  THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY...
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING ENEWD INTO SRN MN. 
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OWING TO
WEAKENING OF THE LLJ.  TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL TSTM AREA. 
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...HOWEVER...DIURNAL BACKING/
WEAKENING OF THE LLJ IS ACTING TO CREATE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.  THUS...THE RISK OF TSTMS HAVE DECREASED.

..RACY.. 04/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.