[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161601
SWODY1
SPC AC 161559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2005

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 50 NW SAD
30 S INW 75 ESE PGA 15 WNW LAR 20 N CDR 10 WNW AXN 15 SSW RHI 10 S
OSH 35 ESE RFD 40 N PIA 25 SE OTM 35 W EMP 30 NW CSM 15 WNW MAF 35
SSW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS IS UNSEASONABLY WEAK AS THE
PRIMARY POLAR JET REMAINS MOSTLY IN CANADA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO PAC NW. TAIL END OF STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND VERTICAL MOTION ON THE
COOL SIDE OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND SURFACE WAVE VICINITY SWRN MN.

SURFACE RIDGING SRN PLAINS HAS SHIFTED A MARGINALLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SELY FLOW FURTHER W THAN ON FRI INTO FAR SWRN TX AND
CENTRAL NM.

WEAK SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS AZ INTO NM
TODAY WILL ENHANCE MID LEVEL SHEAR AND PROVIDE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
INTO NM.

...NCENTRAL U.S...
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING INTO SWRN MN SUPPORTED BY LIFT ON THE N
SIDE OF WEAK SURFACE LOW NWRN IA AND MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ELEVATED AIRMASS.  CURRENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR MID LEVEL
ROTATION AS STORMS MOVE INTO SWRN MN.  WITH COLD/STEEP LAPSE
RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN COMMON IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  AS THE SCENTRAL CANADA S/WV TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...SHEAR
AND SUPPORT FOR CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

...NM INTO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL SELYS HAVE SPREAD MOISTURE WELL WEST ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT. 
WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S WWD INTO CENTRAL
NM...AIR MASS WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES
TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.  WITH RELATIVELY COLD/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO NEAR
8C/KM...HAIL SHOULD BECOME COMMON IN MANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL.
 AND AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS
THERE COULD LOCALLY BE STRONG WINDS AS STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW
DOMINATED.

..HALES.. 04/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.