[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161257
SWODY1
SPC AC 161256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 40 S SAD 45
WNW SAD 25 NW INW 35 NE U17 DGW BKX 50 NNW EAU OSH 30 E RFD MMO IRK
50 W CNU LTS 40 NE FST 20 SSE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM
THE SRN GRT BASIN ENE ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS TEMPORARILY RETREATS
NWD INTO SRN CANADA.  AT THE SURFACE...A PATTERN SIMILAR THAT
OBSERVED FRIDAY WILL PERSIST OVER THE RCKYS AND PLNS.  WEAK
LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL/ERN NM. FARTHER
N...FRONT WHICH SETTLED S INTO THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN N IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS/LEE TROUGHING IN
MT/SASKATCHEWAN.

...NM/SRN CO...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NM/SRN CO LATER TODAY AS AXIS OF RESIDUAL LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS DESTABILIZED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF
UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FROM
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WEAK FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM ERN
CO INTO NW KS.

AVERAGE AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT REGION. 
THUS...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND. BUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
BACKED AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER...ESPECIALLY IN NM...RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY.  THIS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN DEEP SHEAR DESPITE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW E OF THE MOUNTAINS.  AS A RESULT...
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SLOW AND DOMINATED BY
PROPAGATION.  NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
EXPECTED AND PROPENSITY FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD TRACK
MAINLY E/ENE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

...FAR W TX...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SRN IMPULSE NOW NEARING ELP THAT IS NOT
WELL DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE ENE
LATER TODAY AND BEYOND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/  FAVORED REGION FOR
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.  WHILE SUFFICIENT DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER
REGION TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION... SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF IMPULSE
MAY TEND TO DISCOURAGE/LIMIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. 
IF THE STORMS DO INDEED REDEVELOP...HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO MAY YIELD
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.

...CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY...
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PERSIST INVOF FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB AND IA
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS WEAK "MIDDLE STREAM' IMPULSE NOW OVER SD
CONTINUES ENEWD.  A FEW STORMS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR MINOR WIND DAMAGE AS WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A WEAK SUPERCELL OR TWO.  DIURNAL
HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY STEEPEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE.  BUT
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.