[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160445
SWODY1
SPC AC 160443

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 40 S SAD 45
WNW SAD 25 NW INW 35 NE U17 DGW BKX 50 NNW EAU OSH 30 E RFD MMO IRK
50 W CNU LTS 40 NE FST 20 SSE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD...DESPITE PERSISTENT MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN MEX NEWD TO ERN
CANADA.  NEXT IN SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM OVER CA/AZ BORDER REGION...SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS
4-CORNERS REGION DURING AFTERNOON...PROVIDING WEAK
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT OVER PORTIONS INTERIOR ROCKIES. 
PRECEDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPEDIMENT TO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER FRONT RANGE/SANGRE DE CRISTO
REGION...GIVEN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE LIFT AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF
HIGHER TERRAIN.

...SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER
ERN FLANKS OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...MAIN FOCI BEING AREAS OF
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER ERN-MOST MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
N-CENTRAL/NERN NM AND CO.  WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...INITIAL CONVECTION
MAY BE MOST DENSELY CONCENTRATED WHERE
1. RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL/NRN CO...AND/OR
2. OUTFLOW AIRMASS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATED GROUND MOISTURE RESULTING
FROM CURRENT ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE MCS IS ADVECTED UPSLOPE AND HEATED
BETWEEN LVS AND RATON MESA.

EXPECT SFC HEATING AND 40S F SFC DEW POINTS ALONG/S OF FRONTAL
ZONE...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 50S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 800-1200
J/KG.  ONCE AGAIN...MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS REGION...WITH 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE
FLOWS THROUGH 700-500 MB LAYER.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL
TURNING AND 15-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS ARE LIKELY IN LOW
LEVELS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOOPED HODOGRAPHS SUITABLE FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES IN EARLY/DISCRETE STORMS...AND
PERHAPS SMALL BOWS WITH SUBSEQUENTLY MERGED/PROPAGATED CONVECTION. 
SIGNIFICANT RIGHTWARD/SWD DEVIANCE OF STORM MOTION IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK MEAN WIND VECTORS BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED SLOW
TRANSLATIONAL STORM SPEEDS.

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
IN 21-03Z TIME FRAME.  MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...TENDENCY TOWARD OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE
AMIDST DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AND LACK OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING .  MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND MINOR WIND DAMAGE IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SUBSTANTIALLY IN LATE
EVENING.  KINEMATIC PROFILE OVER THIS AREA ALSO WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...FAVORABLE VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...AND LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER SERN WY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEB DURING
PERIOD...PROVIDING SOME STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  DIURNAL
HEATING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW 40S TO LOW 50S F SFC DEW POINTS
WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 800-1200 J/KG.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE FROM CENTRAL IA
NEWD WHERE NRN STREAM HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTER...BUT COMBINATION
OF CAPPING...WEAKER MOISTURE...AND SMALLER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAKE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TOO CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 04/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.