[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160100
SWODY1
SPC AC 160058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 60 W ONM 4SL 35
NNW ALS COS GLD LBF BKX MSP LSE CID P28 CSM LBB INK 25 S P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS FOR REMAINDER PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM NRN QUE SWWD ACROSS GREAT
LAKES TO NRN MEX.  RELATIVELY ACTIVE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE PATTERN
EVIDENT OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...WITH LEAD TROUGH NOW MOVING
THROUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGE POSITION OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX AND UPSTREAM
PERTURBATION OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA.  MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING
NEWD ACROSS NRN MANITOBA TOWARD HUDSON BAY.  AS THIS TREND
CONTINUES...SFC FRONTOLYSIS IS EXPECTED OVER MN.  HOWEVER...TRAILING
PORTION OF FRONT WILL REMAIN SHARPLY DEFINED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
MOVEMENT...FROM ERN NEB SWWD ACROSS SWRN KS/SERN CO TO EXTREME
N-CENTRAL NM.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS
IS NOT GENERATING ENOUGH LARGE SCALE DVM TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
GENERATED BY FAR MORE INTENSE OROGRAPHICALLY/THERMALLY FORCED LIFT
IN BOUNDARY LAYER.

...SRN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
AFTERNOON TSTMS THAT INITIATED OVER SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF NRN
NM...AND SURROUNDING ELEVATED TERRAIN...IS LOOSELY ORGANIZING INTO
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE STABLE FROM NOW THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD BECAUSE OF LOSS
OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...PRIND FORCING ALONG FORWARD-PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN COMPLEX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EVENING WITH SOME NEW GENERATION OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE.  DESPITE
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN
8-9 DEG C/KM -- PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED AMA/ABQ RAOBS --
SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN BUOYANCY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.  ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK -- I.E. 10-20
KT THROUGH MOST OF 700-500 MB LAYER -- STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING AND
20-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW RESULTS IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH STORM ROTATION TO GENERATE HAIL.  SOME GUSTS
MAY APCH SEVERE LIMITS ALSO...WHILE DESCENDING THROUGH WELL MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYER.  THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z BECAUSE OF
WEAKENING CAPE...COOLING INFLOW LAYER AND INCREASINGLY
CLUSTERED/MERGING STORM MORPHOLOGIES.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEWD TOWARD SUX/FSD
REGION THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT INVOF SFC QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. 
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND
500 J/KG...ROOTED PRIMARILY IN 650-800 MB LAYER.  ISOLATED HAIL NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS KS/NEB WHERE
BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ.

..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.