[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081248
SWODY1
SPC AC 081246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 20 WNW DHN
40 SSW BNA 35 SSE LEX 25 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AST 55 NE SUN
50 W COD 20 SW GDV 35 E DIK 30 NW VTN 30 WSW MCK 25 ESE LAA 15 SW
RTN 70 ESE PGA 20 NW SCK 30 W UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE ATLANTIC STATES...
A VERTICALLY STACKED/OCCLUDED LOW OVER GA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD TODAY AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. 
DESPITE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME...RELATIVELY COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 55-60 F WILL RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-100O J/KG TODAY ACROSS FL/GA/THE
CAROLINAS.  RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SEVERE
STORMS...THOUGH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

A SEPARATE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS S FL THIS
MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FARTHER NW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL.  WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS S
FL...INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BEEN REDUCED OVER ALL BUT THE
KEYS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.  THE
SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND EXTREME S FL.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT
IS APPROACHING NRN CA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS EJECTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS OF ONLY 28-32 F INVOF THE LEE
TROUGH.  STILL...SOME WEAK HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ERN CO NWD INTO WRN NEB AND SE WY THIS EVENING...WHERE
INVERTED-V PROFILES AND 30-40 KT FLOW WITHIN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER
MAY SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 04/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.