[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080438
SWODY1
SPC AC 080436

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
FMY 20 SE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AST 55 NE SUN
50 W COD 20 SW GDV 40 SE P24 30 NE PIR 40 E MCK 30 NNW LBL 15 SW RTN
70 ESE PGA 15 NW P38 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 20 WNW DHN
40 SSW BNA 55 W LOZ 25 ENE SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME SRN FL...

...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD
FRIDAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 WILL RESIDE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS FEATURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SURFACE HEATING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 70S. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER
WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...LEAVING RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA. DESPITE THE WEAK
SHEAR...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.



...FL...

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH SRN FL AND MAY
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME S FL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL IT MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER INTO THE MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY AS DRY SLOT SPREADS EWD ACROSS FL. STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF
THE PENINSULA. GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR INITIATION...ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. IF STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.


...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE DEEP...DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYERS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH
MID EVENING.

..DIAL/CROSBY.. 04/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.