[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080108
SWODY1
SPC AC 080106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
SRQ 10 NW AGR 30 N MLB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
SPA AGS 70 ESE MCN 35 ENE ABY 35 SE CSG 25 ESE LGC 15 W AHN 30 NW
AND 10 WNW GSP 30 SSE SPA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 45 E HLN
30 S JAC 10 E SLC 30 WNW MLF 60 S TPH 30 NNW FAT 15 SSW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 15 N MAI 15 ENE
MGM 20 NNE MEI 15 NE GWO 20 WNW MEM 20 NNW DYR 45 WSW OWB 20 SE BMG
20 E DAY 40 WSW MGW 40 NNE HGR 35 NNE AVP 20 NNE POU 15 ENE BDR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF GA INTO WRN SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL...

...GA THROUGH WRN SC...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NW AL/SW MIDDLE TN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW WITH ONE SUCH MAXIMUM NOW MOVING THROUGH AL/GA. ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF
STORMS FROM AL...GA INTO TN. THE STRONGEST STORMS EXTEND FROM CNTRL
GA INTO EXTREME WRN SC WHERE A RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS
UNDERNEATH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

...SRN FL...

A SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF FL AND EXTENDS FROM JUST S
OF MELBOURNE SWWD TO NEAR FORT MYERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MIAMI
SHOWS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES TO CONTINUE
WITHIN THE LINE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LINE
CONTINUES SWD OVERNIGHT.


...NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA...

ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAX ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH OVER
THE NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NRN FL/SRN GA LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF NRN FL INTO
SRN GA WHERE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION
GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS AND SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 04/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.