[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071943
SWODY1
SPC AC 071941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABY 40
SSW CSG 20 WNW AUO 30 ESE HSV 35 SW BNA 30 E CKV 50 E BWG 30 SSE LOZ
20 W GSP 10 WSW AGS 65 ESE MCN 60 NW AYS ABY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CRE 35 NE FLO SOP 10 SSW RDU 50 ENE RWI 25 E ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
CTY 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 30 SSE VRB 40 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 40 NNE BZN
20 WSW BPI 20 W PUC 25 SSW CDC 45 W DRA 30 ESE FAT 15 SSW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PNS 60 N PNS
25 SE MEI 35 N HEZ 25 ESE ELD 10 N HOT 30 SE HRO 25 N UNO 10 SE IND
25 NW ZZV 30 ENE PIT 20 WSW IPT 20 NNE POU 10 SSE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC...

...FL...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN
FL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN NRN FL AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOWS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE LINE ORGANIZED AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...0-2
KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE EVENING.

...ERN NC...
A THIN LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN NC.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS ERN NC SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0
C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FAST MOVING BOW SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LINE MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN UPPER-LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN TN AND NRN MS. THIS
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA EXTENDING NWWD INTO MIDDLE
TN WHERE SBCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 04/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.