[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071543
SWODY1
SPC AC 071541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 25 WSW PFN 25 ENE TOI 35 SSW HSV 40 S CKV
15 SSE BWG 10 SSW LOZ 15 NNE AND 20 N CAE 25 WNW SOP RDU 45 W ECG 25
E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 40 NNE BZN
20 WSW BPI 20 W PUC 25 SSW CDC 25 NNE DRA 55 NNW NID 15 SSW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PNS 55 NNW CEW
35 SE MEI 35 N HEZ 25 ESE ELD 10 N HOT 30 SE HRO 25 N UNO 10 SE IND
25 NW ZZV 30 ENE PIT 20 WSW IPT 20 NNE POU 10 SSE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST/FL...

SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN TWO REGIMES TODAY...FIRST OF WHICH WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN SC SWWD TO OFF
THE NW FL COAST.  SECOND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECEED
STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANY PRIMARY
COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE SERN COASTLINE
TONIGHT.

...ERN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...
THOUGH NRN END OF CURRENT SQUALL LINE HAS WEAKENED AND 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERSION LAYER
BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING LINE INTO SERN SC/SERN GA THIS
MORNING.  BY THE AFTERNOON...FURTHER HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS.  IN ADDITION... LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES. 
THIS MAY OFFSET MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/MLCAPES AND SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS LINE MOVES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

...FL...
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE PREVALENT WITH TRAILING PORTION OF SQUALL
LINE AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. 
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  HOWEVER...INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AND WILL AID DESTABILIZATION
AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE COMPONENT
OF NEWD STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO ESEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
THIS MAY KEEP MANY OF THE STORMS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND INHIBIT WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER SHOULD
STORMS MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OR TURN RIGHT WITH
SUFFICIENT SPEED TO MOVE INTO WARM SECTOR...THEN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AS SURFACE
T-TD SPREADS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.  AS COLD FRONT SURGES
SSEWD LATER TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF FL OVERNIGHT.  STRENGTH OF SHEAR SUPPORTS A
THREAT OF
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

...ERN AL/WRN GA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN AL AND WRN GA.  MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND MESO-SCALE ANALYSES SUPPORT THIS WITH CLEARING AND LOWER
60F SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING IN PLACE.  ANOTHER AREA OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN
AND POSSIBLY SERN KY UNDER VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.  SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP SWD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN AL/GA AND POSSIBLY THE FL PANHANDLE. 
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 04/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.