[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071254
SWODY1
SPC AC 071252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 25 WSW PFN 25 ENE TOI 25 SSE BHM 45 NE MSL
50 N CSV 30 ENE TYS 15 NNE AND 40 SSE SPA 35 WSW SOP RDU 45 N EWN 20
SW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 35 SSW BPI
10 NNW BCE 50 WSW SGU 45 SSW MER 25 SW SJC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 25 ENE ESF
30 S PGO 15 NE MKO 10 NE JLN 15 SW JHW 15 W GFL 25 S PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NOW NEAR MEM SHOULD CONTINUE
SLIGHTLY S OF E THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING N GA BY 12Z FRIDAY. 
MID/UPR LEVEL SPEED MAX IN SWRN QUADRANT OF LOW...NOW CROSSING THE
UPPER TX GULF CST...SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN GULF LATER TODAY
AND REDEVELOP NE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/WRN ATLANTIC TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.

...SC/GA/FL...
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN SC SSW INTO THE NERN
GULF...AN AMALGAM OF STORMS FROM THE LAST TWO DAYS...WILL CONTINUE E
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SC/GA AND N FL LATER TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH TN VLY LOW SPREAD EWD. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP SHEAR PROVIDED BY APPROACHING
SPEED MAX SHOULD MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  WHILE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IS NOT PURELY SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD BE PRESENT TO BOOST
AVERAGE MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG.  THUS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS. 
A LIMITED THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES AS DECIDED SLY
COMPONENT TO NEAR-SURFACE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET.

SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS CNTRL FL
LATER TODAY...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN SOMEWHAT GREATER.  COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW CROSSING THE
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...THIS MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
SRN END OF SQUALL LINE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM W OF TPA.  OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. 
FAIRLY LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS /40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR AND UP
TO 200 0-1 KM SRH/ MAY PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

...CNTRL/NRN AL INTO GA...
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT OF UPPER LOW IN WAKE OF
SC/GA/N FL SQUALL LINE.  WHILE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED RELATIVE TO POINTS S AND E...AMPLE /30 TO 40
KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/ POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. 
COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE MID LEVEL RATES...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR HAIL AS STORMS ORGANIZE IN SHORT BANDS INVOF WEAK COLD
FRONT/EWD-MOVING SURFACE LOW.

...MIDDLE TN AND KY...
OTHER MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER N OVER MIDDLE TN AND
KY...N OF UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/WEAK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 04/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.