[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070450
SWODY1
SPC AC 070448

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
PNS 70 SE MEI 35 SSW TCL 45 N TCL 15 SSE HSV 25 NW RMG 25 WNW AHN 25
SE AND 40 SSE SPA 40 SE CLT 20 N SOP 20 WSW RWI 35 E GSB 35 E EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 35 SSW BPI
10 NNW BCE 50 WSW SGU 45 SSW MER 25 SW SJC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 25 ENE ESF
20 SE PGO 25 NNW FSM 20 WNW SGF 35 WNW IND 30 W EEN 25 S PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
U.S....

...SERN U.S...

THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NWRN AZ WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
ESEWD AND INTO GA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER...AND WILL MOVE FROM NEAR
MEMPHIS BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO NRN GA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER.

A 40-45 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER
LOW CENTER SHIFTING FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND GA AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD TO ERN NC BY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TRANSPORT
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S NWD INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AL...GA AND PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS.

PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR NWD DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE EFFECTS
OF ONGOING MCS CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF GA.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE PERIOD.

SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SRN END OF AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS FROM PARTS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL WHERE
CLOSER PROXIMITY  TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
HEATING WILL EXIST.  MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY MID-DAY. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM NRN FL INTO
GA...AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG SRN END OF MCS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
DRY SLOT REGION IN WAKE OF THE MCS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL AND
GA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AS STORMS REDEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

...MIDDLE TN AND KY...

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND KY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL/CROSBY.. 04/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.