[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
OAJ 40 SSW ECG 25 NW RIC 40 S MRB 30 ENE HGR 10 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY VRB
...CONT... 25 ENE ILM 35 SE FAY 10 NW FLO 30 N CAE 30 ENE SPA 40 WSW
GSO 20 NW DAN 35 NNW LYH 15 W EKN 30 W MGW HLG 20 WSW ERI ...CONT...
MSS 25 WNW RUT 20 NW EEN 25 NE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE
DELMARVA...

...DELMARVA...
NARROW LINE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ORGANIZATION AS IT LIFTS ENEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN VA THIS MORNING. 
MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POCKETS OF WARMING
/I.E. SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 60S F/ MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR
SURFACE BASED STORMS.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL UNTIL LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO COOLER AIR NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE
ARE HOLDING IN THE 50S INVOF SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR ERN WV
PANHANDLE/NWRN VA AT 16Z.  AS LOW CENTER TRACKS NEWD NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...SMALL REGION OF ENHANCED
ASCENT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A
THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...
HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
ALSO EXIST.

...ERN NC...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 485 FOR MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION.  NARROW WINDOW OF
SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE OUTERBANKS AND ADJACENT
OFFSHORE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.  VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CELLS.

...SRN FL...
LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN
FL THIS MORNING.  IN ADDITION...12Z SOUNDING AT MFL INDICATED
SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION BETWEEN 750-700 MB.  THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...DESPITE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MAINTAIN ATTENDANT LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF HAIL/WIND DAMAGE.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 04/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.