[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021955
SWODY1
SPC AC 021954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
EWN 25 SE RWI 55 N RWI 40 NNE CHO 25 WNW DCA 15 WNW NHK 25 NE ECG 40
SE ECG 35 NE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 15 NNW ILM
25 N FLO 45 SE CLT 30 SSW GSO 20 S SHD 30 NW MRB 40 ENE BFD 25 WSW
SYR 50 NE UCA 30 NW RUT 20 NNE LEB PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 25 S PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN NC AND
DELMARVA...

...DELMARVA AND NERN NC...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR
WRN VA AND CURRENT NEWD MOTION WOULD PLACE THE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL VA
BY 00Z. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED EWD
OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE THE CONVECTION FROM MD/NJ NWWD ACROSS ERN
PA HAS WEAKENED DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN VA/NC...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF A ILM-DCA LINE... AS WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO WLY
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EAST OF THIS LINE AND SURFACE
HEATING IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE THE
WEAK INSTABILITY...SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DELMARVA AND NERN NC. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL END BY 01Z/02Z AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

...SRN FL PENINSULA...
COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER
THREAT LEFT FOR THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. WEAKENING
CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NW HAS ENDED ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..IMY.. 04/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.