[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021243
SWODY1
SPC AC 021241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
CRE 25 S RDU 25 SSE LYH 30 SE HGR 20 SSW ABE 10 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 50 ESE VLD
45 NE AYS 45 SSE AGS 40 SSE AND 30 SSW AVL 10 N HSS 30 NNE JKL 35
SSW CMH 35 NNW CMH 35 NNW MFD ...CONT... MSS 25 WNW RUT 20 NW EEN 20
NNE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION/SRN NJ...

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER N CNTRL KY.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT TRACKS ALONG AN ARCING PATH ACROSS WRN NC AND REACHES SE PA BY
12Z SUNDAY.  TRIPLE POINT LOW NOW DEVELOPING IN SW VA SHOULD BECOME
THE MAIN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE LOW WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY NNE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NC/SRN DELMARVA CST.

...ERN CAROLINAS TO SRN MID ATLANTIC REGION...
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NOW OCCURRING OVER VA/MD AND PA EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL
NWD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD...DE
...NJ AND SE PA.  AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AS
LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT NOW OVER WRN NC AND SW VA
LIFTS NEWD.  COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT
REGION OF 100 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ON ERN SIDE OF UPPER
LOW...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY...WITH AVERAGE SBCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG.

RECENT INCREASE IN CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING OVER N CNTRL NC/WRN VA
IS PROBABLY START OF WHAT WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MAINLY
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE EPISODES ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  OTHER
STORMS MAY SPREAD NWD ALONG AXIS OF PREFRONTAL VEERING INTO ERN
NC/SE VA...WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING
MAY BOOST CAPE TO 1000 J/KG.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF S TO SSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AOA 60 KTS/ AND
INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/BANDS
WILL LIKELY CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
IN SRN/ERN VA. WHILE THE RISK IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD END BY
18-19Z...DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TILT OF UPPER SYSTEM AND CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD ALLOW SEVERE
THREAT TO PERSIST UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR ERN
VA...ERN MD...DE...SRN NJ AND PERHAPS EXTREME SE PA.  POST FRONTAL
THUNDER MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT OVER PA/NJ.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT CNTRL AND SRN FL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK BUT 50+ KT
WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST INVOF COLD FRONT.  LIMITED DEGREE
OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.