[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020546
SWODY1
SPC AC 020544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
CHS SOP DAN 30 E CHO DCA 35 SE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CTY 20 NNW JAX
40 SW SAV 45 SSE AGS 40 N AGS 15 W GSP 10 ENE HSS 10 WSW BLF CRW UNI
CMH MFD CLE ...CONT... MSS GFL PVD ACK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

EVOLUTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS UNDERWAY JUST WEST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT DEVELOPS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...BEFORE
LIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH BEGINS TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES TODAY...AS DRYING IN WAKE OF EASTERN
SYSTEM PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE ROCKIES. FARTHER WEST...LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY.

...SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS FROM AREAS OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH HAS
PROGRESSED AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND HAS NEGATIVELY
IMPACTED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
CYCLONE.

LEAD IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WITH BASE OF INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM
TROUGH CLOSE ON ITS HEELS.  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MODELS SUGGEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN
02/12-18Z FOR EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY FROM THE MYRTLE BEACH SC/RALEIGH N.C. AREAS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.  AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...BETTER MOISTURE
MAY FINALLY ADVECT INLAND OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY
CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.  STRONG FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR WILL
ALSO SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO...BEFORE LINE PROGRESSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
MID-LEVEL COLD CORE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.  WITH
DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN WARM SECTOR OF
CYCLONE...DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
COLD FRONT MAY ONLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL PENINSULA AREAS
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME FOCUSED OFF
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY MID DAY...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..KERR/TAYLOR.. 04/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.