[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020035
SWODY1
SPC AC 020034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
MOB 50 NNW PNS 10 E SEM GAD CHA TYS TRI ROA CHO 40 ESE CHO 35 NE ORF
...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB EYW ...CONT... 50
SE HUM GPT 0A8 HSV 40 ESE BWG LUK MFD 45 W ERI BUF BGM MSV 20 SE
NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODEL FORECAST
EVOLUTION OF DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN/
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...COMPRISED OF A
COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN DISTINCT
BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES.  IN THE SOUTHERNMOST STREAM...IMPULSE
HAS MAINTAINED POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...COLD NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
NOW APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...AND A GRADUAL MERGER/PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS APPEARS
LIKELY.  ASSOCIATED DEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT OF UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATER TONIGHT.

WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND
INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN WARM SECTOR
WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A HEIGHTENED SEVERE THREAT. 
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES STILL PERSIST...PRIMARILY DUE TO APPARENT
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EXTENDING
OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA.

WHILE DAYTIME HEATING HAS MINIMIZED HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY MILD...IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S...AND LITTLE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THEREFORE...AS AMPLIFICATION OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PROCEEDS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY FINALLY OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR... CONTRIBUTING
TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION.

INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 02/03-06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS WITH STRONGER FORCING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.  EMBEDDED WITHIN 40 TO 50+ KT MEAN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS
LIKELY TO INCREASE.

SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT BETTER
TORNADO THREAT LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO ANY CELLS DEVELOPING IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF LINE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH HEIGHT.

..KERR.. 04/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.