[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012010
SWODY1
SPC AC 012008

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
DAB 35 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 10 SW GPT 30 ESE JAN 15 SSE TUP BNA 55 NNW
CSV LOZ 15 N TRI 35 N HKY 40 ENE HKY GSO 40 SE LYH RIC 10 ESE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB EYW ...CONT... 50
SE HUM JAN UOX JBR SLO PIA JVL 40 NE MKE AZO FWA MIE CMH 15 SSE JHW
35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS BETWEEN ERN MS...CENTRAL FL AND
SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OZARKS AND OVER UPPER MS VALLEY -- ARE FCST TO
PHASE INTO ONE DISCRETE CYCLONE ALOFT TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW WILL
SHIFT ESEWD FROM IL ACROSS KY AND ADJACENT OH VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED
SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED AL/TN BORDER -- SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NEWD ALONG WRN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. 
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED EXTREME ERN MS SSWWD
ACROSS SERN LA -- WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH TONIGHT...SWEEPING EWD AND
SEWD ACROSS AL...GA...WRN CAROLINAS AND MUCH OF FL.

...NRN FL...EXTREME SRN GA...
ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER NRN FL...WHILE
TRAILING ACTIVITY MOVES ONSHORE FL COASTAL BEND REGION AND NRN
PENINSULA SUBSEQUENTLY.  DAMAGING WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  REF SPC WW 121 AND SUCCEEDING
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS THIS AREA.  SRN END OF
CONVECTIVE BAND DESCRIBED IN NEXT SECTION MAY AFFECT THIS AREA AFTER
DARK.

...MS/AL/TN/GA...
NARROW LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD FROM ERN MS ACROSS
PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN AL...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWD BACKBUILDING
AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM DIABATICALLY.  ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR PROFILES MASS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  REF WW 122 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR
NEAR TERM SCENARIO.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO RELATIVELY
STABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING NWD/NWWD FROM REGION AFFECTED BY FL
PANHANDLE MCS. ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS IT GETS INTO ERN AL/GA WITH
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED AIR MASS NOW IN SRN
GA/NRN FL......HENCE RELATIVE MIN IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER MUCH
OF GA.

...GA/CAROLINAS PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...LATE TONIGHT...
EXPECT LLJ TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT AFTER DARK AND CONTRIBUTE TO 
POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OF TSTMS -- EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF
LINE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY NOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
MS/AL. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS.  HEIGHT/PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH APCH OF CONSOLIDATED MS
VALLEY UPPER CYCLONE...RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF AMBIENT WIND
PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK...DEPTH OF CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THIS REGION.  THIS
REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY DAY 2 TOWARD TIDEWATER AREA...REF
SPC DAY-2 OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.