[SWODY1] SWODY1

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ACUS01 KWNS 011614
SWODY1
SPC AC 011612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
GPT 20 NE LUL 15 SSE TUP 50 N MSL 20 SSW JKL 45 NNW SSU 45 NNE CHO
10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 50 WNW JAN
15 N GLH 10 SSE PBF 40 NNE LIT 30 E UNO 25 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW
CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...

...OVERVIEW OF DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST COMPLEX THIS MORNING DUE TO MCS AND ITS
AFFECTS NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE FL
PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF AL AND CENTRAL/NRN GA. OTHERWISE...POTENT
UPPER SYSTEM AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE
LOW NNEWD ACROSS NRN AL TODAY AND UP THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKEWISE MOVE STEADILY EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND AL/WRN
FL PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND INTO NRN FL/ERN SC/CENTRAL NC
BY LATE TONIGHT.  INCREASE IN SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KT AT
H85/ PRECEEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SHEAR PARAMETERS AND
ALLOW SOME RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO OCCUR WITHIN WARM
SECTOR INTO AL/GA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...HOW MUCH RECOVERY
REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AND REMAINS PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM. 
REGARDLESS...THREE REGIMES OF POTENTIAL SEVERE REMAIN EVIDENT: 1)
AHEAD OF PERSISTENT MCS INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA...2) AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO FAR ERN MS/AL/NRN AND
WRN GA/SERN TN...AND 3) AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
SERN U.S. COASTAL SECTIONS.

...NRN FL AND THE PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA/FAR SRN SC...
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF MCS NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE...AND SOUTH OF CLOUDINESS NOW OVERSPREADING CENTRAL GA. 
RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY ENHANCE AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...MODIFIED
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S SHOULD DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE DAY.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF BOTH LOW
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS MCS SHIFTS GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY. WW
LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LATER
TONIGHT...FEED OF SWLY SURFACE FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW
SUFFICIENT RECOVERY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
FL.

...AL/WRN AND NRN GA INTO THE APPALACHIANS...
SEVERE THREAT MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THIS REGION AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...MOST FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP
FOR SEVERE WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 
EVEN LOW 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CENTRAL/NRN AL YIELDING
1000 J/KG MLCAPE USING A 70F/64F SURFACE PARCEL.  WEAK LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUSTAIN SOME CINH AND SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL AWAIT PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING.  THUS...STORMS MAY BECOME LINEAR RATHER QUICKLY
ONCE THEY FORM.  HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE.  SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT NEWD ALONG PATH OF SURFACE
LOW...AND ESEWD WITH POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

...CAROLINAS...
THOUGH SYSTEM DEEPENS WELL NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION TONIGHT... SHEAR
VALUES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. IF
TEMPERATURES CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT... CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAY
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR FORECAST
OVER THE REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 04/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.