[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011301
SWODY1
SPC AC 011300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
HUM 30 NE MCB 25 ENE MEI 35 SW BNA 35 NW TRI 45 NNW SSU 45 NNE CHO
10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 40 N MLB 25 SSW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 50 WNW JAN
40 N GLH 15 N HOT 30 SSW HRO 15 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE
JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SERN
U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
OK CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY AS
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PHASE WITH STRONG UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING S
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS.  THE RESULTING PHASED DISTURBANCE SHOULD
SUBSTANTIALLY AMPLIFY AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AND ABSENCE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WAVE NOW OVER SRN MS
WILL UNDERGO ONLY GRADUAL DEEPENING TODAY.  THE LOW SHOULD...
HOWEVER...STRENGTHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS IT REDEVELOPS NNE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS.  A SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO FORM AT THE TRIPLE POINT
OVER THE NC/VA EARLY SATURDAY.

...ERN GULF CST TO S ATLANTIC CST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BNDRY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WNW/ESE OVER THE NERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FOCUS OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
TODAY. WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION STORMS/CLOUDS WILL RETARD NWD
ADVANCE OF BNDRY AND LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  IN
ADDITION...SLIGHT RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM PHASING UPPER SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY WEAK.  BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE
INFLUX OFF THE N CNTRL/NERN GULF...WHERE AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
TO SUPPORT STRONG CELLS ON SRN AND WRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX MCS NOW
OVER SRN MS/AL AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES E INTO GA/NW FL
LATER TODAY...AND INTO CSTL SC THIS EVENING.  AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP
SWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCNS LATE THIS AFTN/ERY TNGT...
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NRN AL/NW GA AND PARTS
OF MIDDLE/E TN LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.  THIS REGION SHOULD
EXPERIENCE SOME SURFACE HEATING AS NEWD MOVEMENT DEVELOPING DRY SLOT
CLEARS AWAY UPPER CLOUDS.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS EXIT
REGION OF STRENGTHENING JET STREAK APPROACHES AREA.  IF STORMS DO
FORM...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
WITH HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO AS MID LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 80 KTS.  BACKING OF UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM
FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING LINEAR FORCING SUGGEST
THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO NE/SW OR NNE/SSW BANDS.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT SPREADS E INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER NE GA/WRN
SC TONIGHT.

...CSTL SC/NC INTO CNTRL NC/VA EARLY SATURDAY...
AN AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD /MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY/ WILL BE REGION EXTENDING
FROM CSTL SC NWD INTO CNTRL NC AND S CNTRL VA...AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW.  LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK.  BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
/WHERE AVERAGE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ MAY SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/STORMS AS DEEP SSWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO
BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS. LONG... SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND
MODERATE MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/HIGH WIND.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.