[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280522
SWODY1
SPC AC 280519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
EWN 30 NE FAY 30 SSE DAN 30 SE LYH 35 NNE RIC 35 SE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN DRA 45 WNW
BIH 35 NNE RBL 35 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 40 N BOI 25 ESE 27U
60 SE HVR 20 SSW P24 25 E Y22 25 NNE CYS 15 S DEN 35 WSW LHX 50 SW
RSL 40 ENE BVO 30 E MLC 10 WSW ADM 20 WSW LTS 35 NNW ABI 15 NNE SAT
20 ESE CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 20 SSW ALM
30 NNW SVC DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE 35 SW GSO 30
SSW SHD 25 S JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW OWY 75 NNW WMC
20 S LOL 30 NW TPH 40 WSW ELY 15 SE ENV TWF 40 NNW OWY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN
MD / SRN DE...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY CONFINED TO CANADA THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRUSH THE GREAT
LAKES / NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD.  FURTHER WEST...RELATIVELY WEAK /
BROAD TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE LOWS / SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS -- WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  

MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE
REMNANTS OF JEANNE...FORECAST INVOF THE N CENTRAL SC / S CENTRAL NC
BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  WEAKENING LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NEWD WITH TIME AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY BY
29/00Z...AT WHICH TIME IT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH
SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED NERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH.  REMNANTS OF JEANNE -- ALONG WITH COLD FRONT -- WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

...NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN DE / SRN MD...
ALTHOUGH TUESDAY SHOULD PROVE LESS ACTIVE THAN MONDAY IN TERMS OF
TORNADO POTENTIAL...FAVORABLY MOIST / SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF
TC JEANNE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  ALTHOUGH JEANNE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...LIMITED HEATING /
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY OFFSET ANY
WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD...ALLOWING ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO
PERSIST / SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF WITH JEANNE FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE / MERGE WITH COLD
FRONT IN THE 29/00-03Z TIME FRAME.

..GOSS.. 09/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.