[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281245
SWODY1
SPC AC 281244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
EWN 50 SW ECG 60 WNW ECG 40 SSE CHO 45 ENE CHO 25 SE BWI 25 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 20 SSE DRA
55 N NID 55 NW NID 35 NNE RBL 35 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 45 NNW
BOI 25 ESE 27U 60 SE HVR 20 SSW P24 25 E Y22 25 NNE CYS 15 S DEN 35
WSW LHX 20 N RSL 40 ENE BVO 30 E MLC 10 WSW ADM 25 SE SPS 15 WNW SEP
10 S AUS 20 ESE CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 25 NE RWI
30 E LYH 20 ESE HGR 30 NNW HYA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN NC NWD INTO
DELMARVA...

...EXTREME ERN NC NWD INTO DELMARVA...
1000 MB REMNANT JEANNE LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KCLT-KGSP AT
12Z AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NC AND SERN VA
TODAY/TONIGHT. COASTAL/WARM FRONT HAD REDEVELOPED INLAND THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT LAST NIGHT AND MID 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WERE
COMMON EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AT DAYBREAK.  

DOMINANT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL CLEAR EXTREME ERN NC THIS MORNING...SERN
VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DELMARVA REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING SINCE ABOUT 10Z...BUT MAY
INTENSIFY AGAIN AS HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS. 

LATEST VWP FROM WAKEFIELD SUGGESTS AROUND 160 M2/S2 OF SRH IN THE
LOWEST 1KM...FOR DEVIANT RIGHT MOVING CELL.  THOUGH THIS IS WEAKER
THAN VALUES OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO/
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC...SERN
VA OR DELMARVA AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 
THREATS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME OWING TO SOMEWHAT WEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER.

ANOTHER SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE EXISTS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SC/NC
BORDER...EFFECTIVELY A DEMARCATION OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER WORKING NEWD.  IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE ALONG THIS ZONE GIVEN CLOUDS/WEAK INSTABILITY AND DISPLACED
LARGE SCALE MASS CONVERGENCE FARTHER NE.

..RACY/CROSBIE.. 09/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.