[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271959
SWODY1
SPC AC 271958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
CHS 20 SSE FLO 20 N FLO 45 SW SOP 15 N SOP RDU 25 NW RWI 25 NNW EWN
35 SSE EWN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
SAV 50 ESE AGS 25 NE AGS 30 WNW CAE 60 NNE RWI 25 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP ONM 45 SSW MTJ
PUC ENV LMT 30 WNW MFR SLE PDT 50 SE S80 COD 45 NNE SHR PHP 10 SE
DLH ...CONT... APN OSH ALO FNB P28 LTS AUS 40 SSE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 20 WSW JAX 40 ESE
VLD 55 SE MCN 30 W MCN 55 S PSK 25 S CHO DCA 25 NNW ILG 20 NE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE DAB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SC AND ERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS CONTAINS PRONOUNCED/POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN ONT...ERRATICALLY MOVING AND WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER FAR W TX...BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK PERTURBATIONS
OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES...ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER
MT...AND DEEP-LAYER REMNANTS OF T.C. JEANNE.  NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DIG SEWD TONIGHT ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO
FURTHER WEAKENING OF JEANNE AND ONSET OF ITS NEWD ACCELERATION NEAR
END OF PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES JEANNE HAS LINKED WITH SRN
END OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ALONG ERN PIEDMONT AND WRN
COASTAL PLAIN TO NERN NC.  ISALLOBARIC FALL AXIS JUST W OF FRONT
INDICATES SOME WWD DRIFT POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW APCHS. 
FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE NWWD AS WARM FRONT INTO REMAINDER NERN NC AND
SERN VA.

MEANWHILE...EACH PERTURBATION FROM TX TO MT AND W COAST WILL
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT REGIONAL GEN TSTM
POTENTIAL...DESPITE DEFICIENCIES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR
INSTABILITY.

...ERN CAROLINAS AREA...
REF SPC WW 844 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
INFORMATION.

THREAT FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLY SHEARED/BUOYANT
SECTOR OF T.D. JEANNE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT PROBABILITIES GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MDT
CATEGORICAL RISK...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SPIRAL/CONVERGENCE BAND
NOW CONTAINING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER ERN SC. THIS ZONE OF
MAXIMIZED LIFT -- ALSO LOCATED JUST INSIDE LEADING EDGE OF MOST
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS SC/NC
BORDER REGION. OTHER SMALLER BANDS AND DISCRETE CELLS MAY CONTINUE
TO FORM WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SW OF OUTER BAND...ALSO CONTAINING
OCCASIONAL MINI-SUPERCELLS.  FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SERVE AS WRN BOUND
FOR GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...SINCE TO ITS W...AIR MASS BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AND CONVECTIVE INFLOW MORE ELEVATED ABOVE
SFC.  0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG SHOULD SHIFT/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MOST
OF OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD...ALONG WITH VERY RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL AND ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS. 
MODIFIED 18Z RAOBS INDICATE MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG FOR REMAINDER
DIURNAL CYCLE...DROPPING TO 200-800 J/KG RANGE AFTER APPROXIMATELY
28/06Z.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT -- AS DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL
INSTABILITY LESSENS...SUPERCELLS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED/SPORADIC...BUT SOME NOCTURNAL TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
SPREAD AS FAR NE AS INVOF NC/VA BORDER BY END OF PERIOD.

..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.