[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251939
SWODY1
SPC AC 251938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 25 NW AYS
20 ESE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSM 10 SSE BDL
20 WNW ABE 30 ESE PSB 15 NE DUJ 20 E JHW 10 N ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 60 ESE PRC
70 ESE PGA 20 E GJT 35 SW LAR 25 NE AIA 25 NNE MHN 30 WNW EAR 40 W
RSL 20 ENE EHA 60 NE AMA 30 WSW LTS 30 N MWL 25 SSW DUA 30 S UMN 25
N ARG 40 SSW MEM 25 WNW GWO 30 WNW HEZ 20 SSW 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL
PENINSULA...

...FL...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE OF JEANNE
APPROXIMATELY 100 E OF PBI WITH A WNWWD MOVEMENT OF AROUND 14 MPH.
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE NWWD TRACK WITH TIME WITH 
CENTER LOCATION OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AN INCREASE
IN BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /AND TORNADO POTENTIAL/ IN NW-NE
QUADRANT OF HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL E COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A NWD OR NWWD SHIFT OF THIS ENVIRONMENT
TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2258.

...SERN AZ/SRN NM/FAR WRN TX...
DIABATIC HEATING IN WAKE OF DECAYING TSTM COMPLEX OVER WRN TX...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AZ
HAVE AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NM AND E-CNTRL
AZ. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6
KM AGL SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR AND
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...NEW ENGLAND...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM N OF EFK
TO N OF SYR. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED
INSOLATION AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 F ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF
200-400 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM NWRN VT INDICATES A FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-3 KM SRH
OF 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF NEARLY 50 KTS. PRIMARY CONCERN
IS WHETHER INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUSTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS
PERSIST...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TEND TO DISCOURAGE ANY
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 09/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.