[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251605
SWODY1
SPC AC 251604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 25 NW AYS
20 ESE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSM 10 SSE BDL
20 WNW ABE 30 ESE PSB 15 NE DUJ 20 E JHW 10 N ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 60 ESE PRC
70 ESE PGA 20 E GJT 35 SW LAR 25 NE AIA 25 NNE MHN 30 WNW EAR 40 W
RSL 30 WNW EHA 20 SE DHT 70 NNE ABI 30 N MWL 25 SSW DUA 25 SSW HRO
30 SW JBR 40 SSW MEM 25 WNW GWO 30 WNW HEZ 20 SSW 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE HURRICANE JEANNE APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA. 
OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ONLY MINOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.

...FL...
HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN PBI-MLB
THIS EVENING.  INCREASING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AHEAD AND NORTH OF CENTER.  THREAT WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS EYE MOVES INLAND AND BEGINS A NORTHWARD TURN.

...NEW ENGLAND...
FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT
SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING ALONG FRONT
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL NY NORTHWARD INTO ME.  GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST CELLS.  

...NM...
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL COLD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -14 OVER NM. MORNING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE 50S.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE
WEAK...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY POSE A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

..HART.. 09/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.