[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260048
SWODY1
SPC AC 260046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 50 E PHX
65 SSW 4BL 25 ESE GJT 30 SSE LAR 35 SW SNY 10 NNE LIC 10 SSW RTN 45
SW AMA 55 W ABI 20 ESE SJT 35 ENE JCT 30 WSW TPL 45 ENE CLL 10 ENE
GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 15 SSW AYS
25 S SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN 2/3 OF
FL AND SERN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF STRONGER / PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD.  OTHER THAN A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER SERN AZ / SWRN NM / NRN MEXICO...FLOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY WEAK / NONDESCRIPT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN HURRICANE
JEANNE...WHICH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SERN FL COAST.  THIS STORM
IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NWWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CONCERNING HURRICANE JEANNE...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...FL / FAR SERN GA...
LITTLE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF
JEANNE OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND AREA WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY
DATA CONFIRMS THAT OUTER BAND CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK.  WITH
EVENING RAOBS INDICATING VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. 
NONETHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ERN FL -- MAINLY N OF THE CENTER...AS A COUPLE OF BRIEF
SPIN-UPS WITH MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..GOSS.. 09/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.