[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251228
SWODY1
SPC AC 251227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE
MIA 45 NE FMY 40 ENE PIE 15 SSW GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 25 SW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 50 SSE FLG
30 SSW MTJ 30 NNW FCL 20 NW MHN 20 S BBW 35 N HLC 35 E LAA 10 SW EHA
35 NNW CDS 65 SW SPS 20 NNW MWL 55 SE HRO JBR UOX 10 NNW ESF 35 W
7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BOS 30 N JFK
35 ENE EKN 30 SW MGW 15 SW BFD 25 NNW PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN FLORIDA....

STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  DEEP
CLOSED LOW...WHICH LIFTED OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND MERGED
INTO THIS FLOW REGIME DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS... CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. 
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC/THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE THIS EVENING.

AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HURRICANE JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS AROUND THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE...LIKELY INTO THE VERO BEACH AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND  THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA UNTIL INFLUX OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MID
70S+ DEW POINTS OCCURS WITH APPROACH OF JEANNE THIS EVENING.  UNTIL
CIRCULATION CENTER MIGRATES INLAND AROUND 26/06Z... RISK OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS IN OUTER BANDS MAY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...NORTH
OF VERO BEACH INTO THE VICINITY OF MELBOURNE AND PERHAPS
JACKSONVILLE.  THEREAFTER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE ORLANDO AREA AS WELL...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL
LIKELY WILL AWAIT INCREASING POSITIVE BUOYANCY OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...NORTHEASTERN U.S...
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING EASTERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND/THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE
STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AT LEAST WEAK LIFT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG FRONT AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
HEATING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.  GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG AND
SHEARED FLOW REGIME ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERLIES...THIS
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS. 
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW LIKELY WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS REMAINING STEEPER LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES
OVERTURNED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  THEREAFTER...NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LOW...IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY TO WARM ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SIGNIFICANT CAPE.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT.

...EAST TEXAS...
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS...AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THIS REGION
COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.