[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250530
SWODY1
SPC AC 250528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE
MIA 45 NE FMY 40 ENE PIE 15 SSW GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW HYA 30 NE EKN
30 E PKB 25 NW HLG 15 W FKL 15 NW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 35 S SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FHU 40 SSW INW 25 W
EGE 30 ESE CYS 25 WNW MHN 10 N EAR 50 NE HLC 55 SW HLC 40 SSW LBL 30
WNW CDS 40 W SPS 35 NE JBR MKL 30 NE UOX 15 NNW ESF 15 W 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...FL...

HURRICANE JEANNE LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING WWD AT 10 KT AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SOMETIME AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER... EXACTLY
WHEN JEANNE WILL BEGIN THE MORE NWD TURN IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER INLAND PENETRATION...HAVE
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN
FL COASTS N AND E OF THE CENTER. THREAT MAY SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
OVERNIGHT.


...NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
NEWD INTO ONTARIO WILL DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD OVER THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION AND INTO THE NERN STATES AND SE CANADA SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE NERN U.S. AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM WRN MAINE SWWD THROUGH NY AND PA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NE U.S. AND MAY TEND TO LIMIT
DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO BELOW
1000 J/KG.

GIVEN TENDENCY FOR UPPER TROUGH TO DE AMPLIFY... PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND VEERED TO WSWLY. 
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OH VALLEY SHOULD ADVECT ENEWD
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO 60 EXPECTED.
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MAY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
GIVEN PREVIOUSLY LIMITING FACTORS...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT MORE THAN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...


ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT STORMS PERSISTING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND W
TX. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM WITHIN REGION
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEBRIS FROM THE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
MAY SERVE TO LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA
SATURDAY. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR... ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM AS WELL A ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ONCE
AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL/CROSBIE.. 09/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.