[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250041
SWODY1
SPC AC 250040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DUG 55 E SOW
25 SSE GNT 20 S 4SL 40 NNW 4SL 20 NNE CEZ 55 N GJT 15 NW RWL 15 ESE
DGW 35 WSW MHN 30 NW HLC 20 NE GCK 45 NNE AMA 40 SE AMA 15 NE CDS 20
E OKC 35 NW FYV 20 SSW TBN 30 WNW SLO 35 ENE MVN 35 ESE PAH 15 WNW
MKL 55 SW MEM 15 WNW GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NM THROUGH WRN TX...

THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN OK SWWD THROUGH NW
TX...THEN BECOMES POORLY DEFINED ACROSS SW TX. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX...AND THESE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR INITIATING
NEW THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...OVERALL TRENDS IN
INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

A MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN MN IS SPREADING EWD INTO S CNTRL NM. WV IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER IS WITHIN A REGION OF DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN AZ. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN THE SELY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OVER SERN NM THIS EVENING. THE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ASCENT AND MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING
THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT STORMS PERSISTING LATE OVER S AND
SERN NM WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SRN NM MAY
ALSO HELP TO INITIATE NEW STORMS AS IT MOVES E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT
MAINTAINING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.