[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241943
SWODY1
SPC AC 241941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW
55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 30 S MTJ 15 ENE GJT 50 WSW CAG 25
NNW RWL 25 N CPR 20 ESE 81V 45 ENE CDR 30 NW HLC 25 NW GCK 60 E DHT
40 NE PVW 15 NE CDS 10 NE LTS 35 SSW JLN 20 WSW TBN 25 N SLO 35 NNW
EVV 45 NW HOP 15 WNW MKL 55 SW MEM 45 W GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15
WSW BVE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NM/WRN TX...
MESOANALYSIS PLACES DIFFUSE BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX WWD ACROSS THE TX
S PLAINS INTO E-CNTRL NM /S OF CVS/. IT IS ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY THAT STRONGEST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PERSISTED...NAMELY
OVER SERN NM. DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX WWD ACROSS NM.
WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AIRMASS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO SWRN TX
WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM THE SRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS SWD TO
THE SACRAMENTOS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE
FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY 20-25 KTS IN THE 6-7 KM LAYER. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT BRIEF ROTATION/
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2256.

...SERN TX/WRN LA...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION NEAR LFK WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO
CNTRL LA TO VICINITY OF POE. CURRENT DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE MOST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG SABINE RIVER VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN
AROUND 500 J/KG. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY
WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY
OCCURRING INVOF CIRCULATION EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HERE...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..MEAD.. 09/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.