[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241233
SWODY1
SPC AC 241231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW
55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 50 SSW GUC 25 E CAG 35 N LAR 15 E
BFF 35 WSW LBF 40 S MCK 30 WNW GCK 60 E DHT 25 E AMA 40 NNW CDS 30
SW CSM 45 N FSI 35 SSW JLN 40 NE SGF 55 ESE TBN 15 SW POF 15 NNW PBF
35 SE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE UPSTREAM
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES.  IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...DEEP
LAYER CLOSED CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES INTO ONTARIO...AND WILL MERGE INTO STRONGER POLAR
WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE... EXTENDING IN POSITIVELY
TILTED FASHION TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
MAY AT LEAST BRIEFLY FORM IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF
TROPICAL CIRCULATION MIGRATING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND NEAR WEAK
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. 
FRONT CURVES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITH BROADLY
CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR CONVECTION.  ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AS HIGH-LEVEL FEATURE LIFTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.  GIVEN
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT PROVIDE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

HOWEVER...SOME HEATING APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR WEAKENING
LOWER/MID-LEVEL TROPICAL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OR DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 
DESPITE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF FLOW FIELDS...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN
STRONGER CELLS.  THIS POSES AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS
BECOMES POSITIVELY BUOYANT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS FROM THE PECOS VALLEY INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. 
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/LOW... DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WELL AFTER ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING AND ASSOCIATED STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

..KERR/GUYER.. 09/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.