[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240104
SWODY1
SPC AC 240102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 35 SE CNM
35 ENE HOB 45 NNW ABI 25 NW ADM 25 WNW JLN 15 N SGF 40 SW UNO 25 SSW
PBF 15 ENE HEZ 35 SW GPT ...CONT... 45 ENE CRP 30 W ALI 15 S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX 45 WSW CMX
30 NW AUW 30 NNE LSE 20 WNW RST 10 WNW MKT 35 W MSP 10 WNW STC 20
SSE HIB 35 WNW HIB 30 E TVF 30 N FAR 40 NNE JMS 15 W DVL 60 N DVL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NW GULF COASTAL AREA...

IVAN IS NEARING THE SW LA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
SLOW NWWD MOTION INLAND TONIGHT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING GENERALLY N AND E OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...OBSERVED 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHREVEPORT LA AND NEW ORLEANS SHOW VERY WEAK LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CORRESPONDING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH 3 KM. A
SMALL CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS N
AND E OF CENTER ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA. HOWEVER...UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL ACCELERATIONS AND
STORM INTENSITIES...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
COOL. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO SRN LA.

...SE MN...

LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH NO LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED OVER
SE MN W OF THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT/UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LINE IS
MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD. THE 00Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING SHOWED AMPLE DRY
AIR FROM 3-6 KM...A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINAL CAPE THROUGH 6 KM...
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2.5 KM AND STRONG SWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH 6 KM. MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND
GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. HOWEVER...
THREAT IS LIMITED BY MARGINAL CAPE AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ALTOGETHER AFTER 02Z.

..DIAL.. 09/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.