[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231934
SWODY1
SPC AC 231933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
GLS 50 NNW BPT 20 WSW POE 35 SSE ESF 15 SE BTR 35 SSE HUM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
ELO 25 SSE EAU 10 SSE RST 15 ENE MKT 25 ENE RWF 40 SSW AXN 55 WNW
AXN 30 NNE FAR 45 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 SW ALM 20
NNW CNM 45 NNW BGS 55 S CDS 30 ESE END 30 WSW CNU 10 ENE FLV 45 WSW
DSM 25 E SUX 35 WNW OLU 25 ESE ANW 15 ESE PIR 55 NE MBG 70 N GFK
...CONT... 85 NNW CMX 30 ESE IWD 10 SSE CWA MSN 25 NE PIA 20 W SPI
55 NNW POF 30 WSW JBR 30 NW GWO 30 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 35 WNW CDR
30 S BFF 25 WNW FCL 50 SE RKS 50 WSW RKS 25 WNW MLD 30 N TWF 80 N
BOI 35 N S80 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE LA AND UPPER TX
COASTS...

...NRN PLAINS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD /N OF HON/ WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION OVER
W-CNTRL MN SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA AND THEN INTO ERN OK. EXPECT LOW TO
DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT...AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 90-100KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE: 1) AHEAD OF CLOUD BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT... AND 2) IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS.

WITH REGARD TO 1)...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CLOUD SHIELD...HOWEVER ONLY MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITING MLCAPES TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
200-300 J/KG. A BROKEN...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IS ATTEMPTING TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM NEAR BRD TO NEAR RST...THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR IS OVERWHELMING THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
SHOULD TSTMS BECOME ORGANIZED...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST OWING TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS.

WITH REGARD TO 2)...BOUNDARY-LAYER IS MUCH COOLER INVOF OF SURFACE
AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...HOWEVER COOLER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
STEEPER LAPS RATES ARE RESULTING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM SURFACE LOW NEWD
ALONG OCCLUSION TO SURGING COLD FRONT WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE. LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS N AND NE OF SURFACE LOW IS
RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FOR AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...LA/UPPER TX COAST...
AS OF 19Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CENTER OF T.S. IVAN
CIRCULATION 50SW 7R4 MOVING NWWD. WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER SWRN LA AS WELL OVER S-CNTRL LA /W OF HUM/. HERE...BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA IS
MARGINALLY STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 50-100 M2/S2 /PER
LCH/NEW VWPS/. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LA
COAST...PRIOR TO SHIFTING WWD INTO THE UPPER TX COAST OVERNIGHT.

..MEAD.. 09/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.