[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231556
SWODY1
SPC AC 231554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
GLS 50 NNW BPT 20 WSW POE 30 NNE LFT 35 SSE BTR 35 SSE HUM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
ELO 50 S DLH 25 NE MSP 20 NE MKT 20 ESE RWF 50 NW RWF 55 W AXN 20
NNE FAR 45 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW CMX 25 ESE IWD
40 WSW CWA 20 WSW MSN 25 NE PIA 20 W SPI 55 NNW POF 30 WSW JBR 30 NW
GWO 30 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS ...CONT... 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN
35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 55 N CDS 35 NNE END 30 SSW EMP 25 NNE EMP 40 NE
MHK 25 SSW BIE 40 NW CNK 25 W EAR 40 NNE ANW 45 SSW JMS 70 NNW TVF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 10 NNW SHR
35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 SSE RKS 50 WSW RKS 25 WNW MLD 30 N TWF 80 N
BOI 35 N S80 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS
SRN LA...

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY.  SURFACE
LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL SD WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NNEWD INTO NWRN MN BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING RAPIDLY NEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY.  STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
/EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING/ WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...
APPEARS HEATING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS WITHIN LOW
LEVEL WAA REGIME OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR.  REGARDLESS...
ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY FORMING INTO A LOW-TOPPED
LINE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO THE
EVENING.  SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCUR FOR STORMS
TO BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE THREATS OF WIND
DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD INCREASE. 
THEREFORE...CONTINUANCE OF A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK WARRANTED ATTM.


...LA COAST INTO THE UPPER TX COAST...
T.S. IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WWD JUST OFF THE LA COAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BPT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
LATEST VWP DATA FROM LCH AND LIX REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL
ROTATION AND A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES FROM ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT
WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH WILL PERSIST FROM SRN LA INTO SERN TX.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.